Predictions [Billboard 200]: Sabrina Carpenter’s ‘Man’s Best Friend’ Album Set to Hit #1 with Biggest First-Week Sales of the Year for a Female

Sabrina Carpenter‘s ‘Man’s Best Friend‘ may have been greeted with surprisingly mixed critical reviews upon its August 29 arrival, but – if industry analysts are to be believed – what’s certainly not mixed is its commercial reception.

Sabrina Carpenter’s ‘Man’s Best Friend’

Predicted First-Week Sales (SPS): 350,000 units

Predicted First-Week Sales (Pure): 205,000 units

Predicted Billboard 200 Debut: #1

According to HDD, Carpenter’s seventh album ‘Friend’ will easily capture next week’s championship spot on the Billboard 200 thanks to total sales right at 350,000 units – nearly triple what the projected #2 position holder is expected to sell.

If the prediction comes true, the victory will mark the highest first-week sales of any female album released in 2025. Among all projects released this year, only The Weeknd‘s ‘Hurry Up Tomorrow‘ (491,000) and Morgan Wallen‘s ‘I’m the Problem’ (493,000) shifted more units upon arrival.

‘Friend’ will mark the second Billboard 200 #1 hit of Carpenter’s career following her breakthrough, blockbuster sixth studio effort ‘Short N’ Sweet‘ which debuted atop the tally in 2024 with the opening sum of 362,000 sold.

Speaking of ‘Sweet,’ the LP is also expected to return to the top 10 next week off the buzz of ‘Friend.’

Keep it locked to That Grape Juice for the announcement of both albums’ commercial performance over the sales tracking period after its revealed on Sunday (September 7).